Using a ‘ tourism climate index ’ to examine the implications of climate change for climate as a tourism resource

Climate has a strong influence on the tourism and recreation sector and in some regions represents the natural resource on which the tourism industry is predicated. There has been little consideration of how climate change might affect the tourism climate resource or how such changes could alter the competitive relationships between tourism destinations. This study used a modified version of Mieczkowski’s (1985) ‘tourism climate index’ (TCI) to explore the impact of projected climate change on the tourism climate resource of a sample of tourism destinations in North America. Conceptual seasonal tourism climate distributions are defined and the current tourism climate index scores of 17 North American cities calculated. All Canadian cities had a ‘summer-peak’ distribution. Cities in the southern US displayed either a ‘winter-peak’ or bimodal spring-autumn peak distribution. Los Angeles was the only city examined to approximate a year-round optimal tourism climate distribution. Seasonal tourism climate index scores are then compared with seasonal accommodation costs at five locations, in order to determine whether the tourism climate index reflects tourism demand. Results at each location were positive. Climate change scenarios were constructed from two general circulation models (CGCM2 and HadCM2) for the 2050s and 2080s and integrated into the tourism climate index of eight Canadian cities. The cumulative annual TCI score improved for all of the cities. Seasonally, the impact of climate change varied by location. Seasonal TCI rating improved in each season for cities in western Canada (Calgary, Vancouver and Yellowknife), while the TCI rating declined in the key summer tourism months of July and August in eastern Canada (Toronto and Montreal). As the first empirical assessment of the implications of climate change for the tourism climate resource, this investigation also raises questions for future inquiry.